The Trump Administration and Pre-election Armenia
On June 7, parliamentary elections were held in Armenia, resulting in the re-election of the country’s ruling authorities, who will continue governing for the next four years. Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, who came to power following the 2018 revolution, has now secured a governing mandate for the third time through parliamentary elections, and once again is forming a government based on these results. The current elections were exceptional in several respects.
It is important to focus on the external factors that are likely to have a significant impact on Armenia’s future in the years ahead. Prime Minister Pashinyan failed to surpass the 50 percent threshold, receiving approximately 49 percent of the vote. He will nevertheless enjoy a parliamentary majority only because of the specific features of Armenia’s electoral system and the fragmentation of the votes of parties not passing to the parliament, securing 63 seats in the National Assembly of Armenia. This means that roughly 51 percent of voters did not place their trust in Pashinyan and instead supported alternative candidates.
This reality is likely to complicate Pashinyan’s efforts in foreign policy, as questions regarding the legitimacy of major decisions will continue to arise. While he possesses a parliamentary majority, claiming to speak on behalf of a broad national consensus will be considerably more difficult. Another challenge concerns the implementation of certain international commitments that his government has undertaken, particularly regarding the normalization of relations with Azerbaijan and Turkey. As a result, avoiding political and diplomatic complications is unlikely.
One of the most significant features of these elections was the direct and indirect external involvement that took place throughout the campaign period. Various actors — including European countries, Turkey, Azerbaijan, US and Russia — sought, in different ways, to influence voters and steer support toward particular political forces. Ultimately, Armenian society delivered neither the government nor the opposition a clear mandate for a fundamental change in the country’s foreign policy direction. This is a remarkable development and, in many respects, an unprecedented phenomenon in the three-decade history of the Republic of Armenia.
Consequently, difficult days lie ahead for Pashinyan, especially with regard to the normalization of relations with Azerbaijan. He must somehow convince the public to adopt a new constitution and amend those constitutional provisions that exist as preconditions for Azerbaijan and Turkey. In these elections, Pashinyan received around 730,000 votes. Significantly more votes are needed to pass a constitutional referendum, and it is difficult to imagine what could happen if the referendum fails.
On the other hand, there is active American involvement in the construction and operation of the Trump Route, which does not seem to be connected to the signing of a peace agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan. Trump considers peace to have already been established and has begun vigorously advancing the American agenda through projects aimed at connecting Central Asia to Europe via the South Caucasus.
Armenian Public Opinion Is Divided on Foreign Policy – The Armenian Mirror-Spectator
